Background
In 2006 and 2007, Ireland and Northern Ireland’s Population Health Observatory (INIsPHO) published the first systematically developed estimates of the current (2005) and future population prevalence (to 2015) of diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) across the island.

This work was based on the Pho-Brent-ScHARR (PBS) model and generates estimates by applying results from rigorous reference population studies and forecasts of obesity, to resident population counts and projections. Estimates, disaggregated by age, sex and ethnicity, are available at local and regional level.

Aims
This project extends the work on diabetes to other chronic diseases. It aims to develop agreed models that provide estimates of the current and future population prevalence of these conditions at varying geographical levels.

These models will also be used to drive improvements in the underpinning research and information systems that provide model inputs and their outputs will be incorporated into service planning, delivery and performance assessment exercises.

Work on diet-related chronic diseases will be done in collaboration with the Health Research Board (HRB) Centre for Diet and Health Research based in University College Cork and University College Dublin.

Progress report (updated February 2008)
In 2007, at the request of the respective health departments, the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) produced preliminary estimates of the population prevalence (in Ireland and Northern Ireland) of hypertension, ischaemic heart disease and stroke in 2005, 2010 and 2015.

Although preliminary estimates, they were used in the review of acute hospital bed capacity conducted for the Health Services Executive (HSE) by PA Consulting.

Contact: Kevin Balanda